antstream| The open market has zero release and zero withdrawal for a consecutive week. The central bank's operating ideas may continue to stabilize the volume and price.

◎ reporter Fan Zimeng

Cross-month and cross-holiday time, the central bank's open market operation is a continuous "land volume" operation. On April 26th, the people's Bank of China carried out a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan in the form of interest rate bidding, and the open market achieved zero release and zero return on that day.

This is the 19th consecutive working day since April that the central bank has carried out 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase in the open market. As of April 26, the central bank has achieved zero investment and zero return for a week in a row. In addition, in April, the central bank renewed its MLF (medium-term lending facility) at volume parity, the first contraction since November 2022.

The recent operation of the central bank has attracted market attention. 'some investors think the central bank is sending monetary policy tightening signals to the market, but it's not, 'said Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst at Everbright Securities. The purpose of maintaining a small reverse repurchase is to better maintain the stability of liquidity in the banking system.

"investors should not rely too much on quantitative indicators such as net investment and operating volume to judge monetary policy orientation, but should pay more attention to the trend of major market interest rates such as DR007 (7-day bond pledge repo rate) over a period of time." Zhang Xu said.

Under the continuous shrinking operation of the central bank, the balance of funds continues to be loose, and there are no waves. This week, the average DR007, a key measure of liquidity in banking financial institutions, is 1.Antstream.88%, which is basically the same as last week and close to the open market operating rate of 1.8%. According to Huaxi Securities Research report, if you take DR007 as a reference, the trend of capital interest rate in April was the smoothest in nearly six years.

"this shows that liquidity in the banking system is at a reasonably adequate level. On the other hand, the continuous small reverse repurchase of cross-section and cross-moon time points precisely shows from the side that the liquidity of the banking system is in a state of abundance. " Zhang Xu said.

In fact, the recent continuous contraction of reverse repurchase by the central bank is affected by many factors. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, analyzed that under the combined effect of the slow pace of government bond issuance in April, the easing of the credit impulse phenomenon and the low maturity scale of the open market, the overall market liquidity was loose. In this context, the central bank operates flexibly according to capital conditions, carries out a small amount of open market operations, and maintains the intention of keeping liquidity reasonable and abundant.

Looking forward to the follow-up capital side, experts said that the trend of capital interest rates will remain stable for a period of time in the future. The acceleration of government bond issuance in the second quarter may disturb the capital side, but the central bank is expected to effectively hedge with flexible open market operations, iron out short-term fluctuations and maintain reasonable and adequate liquidity in the banking system.

Zhou Maohua believes that in May, the maturity of open market instruments is small, and the main disturbing factors on the capital side may come from the pace of government bond issuance. On the whole, the current fiscal and monetary policies are positive, the short-term liquidity adjustment of the central bank is relatively flexible, and the capital side is expected to remain stable and slightly loose in May.

Sun Binbin, an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, saidAntstreamOn the one hand, the central bank will flexibly grasp the operation of policy tools such as reverse repurchase in the open market to accurately hedge the short-term impact of fiscal bond issuance; on the other hand, the central bank may include buying and selling treasury bonds as a policy reserve tool in the future. enrich liquidity management tools.

"it is estimated that the next stage of the central bank is still the monetary operation idea of quantity stability and price leveling." Sun Binbin believes that for the bond market, as long as there are no big fluctuations in the capital side, it is recommended to continue to maintain the long-term strategy and make the curve flat.